Modelling the fourth wave of Covid-19 pandemic in Egypt

Volume 29, Issue 1, pp 52--59 http://dx.doi.org/10.22436/jmcs.029.01.05

Publication Date: August 11, 2022 Submission Date: January 28, 2022 Revision Date: April 25, 2022 Accteptance Date: June 16, 2022

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Authors

I. A. Moneim - Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Benha University, Benha, PO 13518, Egypt. E. I. A. El-Latif - Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Benha University, Benha, PO 13518, Egypt.

Abstract

This paper studied the dynamics of Covid-19 in Egypt using machine learning algorithms and the epidemiological model SEIR. Among the machine learning models studied, two models showed promising results (SVR, SEGPR). Predictions of the spread of Covid-19 in the next 70 days conducted using these three approaches. The data of the fourth wave of Covid-19 in egypt taken from the WHO. The statistical measures R-Squared and RMSE used to evaluate the accuracy of these models.

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Keywords

• Machine learning
• Covid-19
• SEIR model
• prediction
• Egypt

MSC

•  68Q07
•  00A71

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